Risks The current market is temporarily sitting on the sidelines, and the prospects for gold price consolidation are still strong

The last trading day Tuesday (August 3rd): The international gold London gold once again oscillated and closed down.

In terms of trend, the price of gold has opened at US$1812.87 since the Asian market in early trading, and has remained within the range of US$1808-1812 for most of the time. Because this Friday’s US employment data may affect the timetable for the Fed to reduce its asset purchase plan, traders are in Prior to this, he held a wait-and-see attitude.

Although the volatility increased from the end of the European market to the beginning of the US market, it first recorded an intraday low of US$1807.15 and then an intraday high of US$1814.70. Finally, it returned to a narrow range and closed at US$1810.37. Compared with the previous two days, the volatility was significantly reduced, with a daily amplitude of US$7.55 and a drop of US$2.5, an amplitude of 0.14%.

　Looking forward to today's Wednesday (August 4th): The opening of the international gold market continues to maintain consolidation, and the trend is still volatile. The U.S. dollar and U.S. debt continued to fluctuate overnight and closed down, but the Dow rebounded sharply to close the sun, and the S&P 500 index rose and closed at a record high, putting pressure on gold prices.

In the day, we will focus on ADP employment in July and ISM non-manufacturing PMI in July.

Small non-agricultural enterprises in July are currently expected to be 68.5. Compared with the previous value, a slight increase of 3 thousand people, the expected impact will be limited. However, the labor market recovery remains strong, with strong employment growth in the second quarter. Although the current number of employees is still nearly 7 million less than before the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, the total number of new jobs since the beginning of 2021 is about 3 million. As companies across the country begin to resume work in an all-round way, the leisure and hospitality industries have the strongest growth. If the data exceeds expectations, it will exert a lot of pressure on gold prices, but the relative expectations are not much different, so the overall situation will remain volatile and continue to wait for Friday’s non-agricultural Quotes.

In addition, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to increase in July. Recently, the U.S. economic recovery has accelerated, but the job market is lagging due to supply constraints. Therefore, small non-farmers are expected to have a probability of benefiting gold prices in the evening. It has been above the dry line since the beginning of the month, which shows that the expansion of the service industry has been steadily proceeding. Moreover, most companies have reported positive earnings overnight, suggesting that the evening data will be negative for gold prices. So overall, the trend still tends to fluctuate.

Fundamentally, Zhang Yaoxi believes that the recent gold prospects are still bullish, and the market is increasingly worried that the recent outbreak of the new crown epidemic will inhibit global economic growth. Therefore, gold bulls still have expectations and room for higher prices. Only in the short term, gold prices are facing certain technical pressures. In addition, two more hawkish policymakers of the Federal Reserve recently stated that the recovery of the job market is almost complete, which cleared the way for the Federal Reserve to start tightening its support to the economy within a few months. .

However, Fed Chairman Powell said last week that the job market still needs to be further determined before it may withdraw support for the economy, and the economy still has a long way to go. Therefore, the market is also waiting for this week's non-agricultural data to strengthen it. The point of view is that if the data continues to be strong, it will put a lot of pressure on the price of gold and move towards the recent decline target, but if the data continues to be weak, the price of gold will once again break through the 200-day moving average.

Technically, weekly level: the price of gold continues to maintain the shock pattern in recent weeks this week, but overall, although the pressure is obvious from the top, from the perspective of weekly lows and the support of the middle rail, the main chart is expected to have an upward breakthrough. In addition, although the short signals of KDJ and MACD indicators in the attached picture are sideways, they tend to continue to weaken. Therefore, in the general direction, the trend is still upward. The key entry support below is around 1760-40 US dollars, and the initial support is concerned about 1790. US dollar, the upper target is near 1930 or 1980 US dollars.

Daily level: The price of gold has remained volatile between US$1790-1835 in the near future. From a daily point of view, the upper 200-day moving average is strong resistance, and the lower 100-day and 30-day moving average are strong support. Short-term long-short operations are possible.

Although the second attempt to break through the 1835 resistance level failed last Friday, a'double top' pattern may be forming. Therefore, it is not ruled out that the risk of falling back to the support of 1790 US dollars is not ruled out, but if it falls below this support, it will further increase the fall, and out of the M form, touching the risk of near 1762 US dollars. But before that, we can still use the 100-day moving average as the support to be bullish.

In the larger direction, the 100-day moving average develops upwards, and the 200-day moving average is touched to form a golden cross trend. In addition, the negative real yield (-1.18%) of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is still at the lowest level in history, which shows that the price of gold Will go higher. Therefore, I am biased towards the view that the market outlook continues to be bullish;

International Gold: The top pays attention to the resistance near US$1819 and US$1826. Below, pay attention to the support of $1808 and the support of $1803;